College football ranked on what happens while the game is still a game. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and results, with garbage time cut out. No polls, no opinions. Only this season’s games count.
2026 season, through week 9. Updated 2026-11-05.
The 12-team field as if the playoff started today, seeded from the CFB Truth rankings (Power + Résumé). The top 11 get in, plus the highest-ranked Group of 6 team in the 12th spot when none is already in the top 12. Inside the field, head-to-head decides the order between teams that played: the team with fewer losses is seeded ahead, and with the same number of losses, the winner is. Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes; first-round games are at the higher seed.
Swipe the bracket sideways to see the whole field.
| Seed | Team | Record | CFB Truth rank | Vs. the field | First game |
|---|
| Rk | Team | Record | Last week | Playoff |
|---|
Every FBS conference ranked by the average Power of its teams, so depth counts as much as the top. Opponent adjustment means games between conferences set how leagues compare. Every stat is the average of the conference’s teams; small numbers are the rank among the 10 conferences. FBS Independents are left out. Tap a conference to see its teams.
| Rk | Conference | Last week | Best team | Top 25 | Non-conf. vs FBS | Avg. Power | Behind #1 | Gap to next | Avg. Résumé | Adj. offense | Adj. defense | Run offense | Pass offense | Run defense | Pass defense | Adj. margin | Special teams | Schedule | Teams |
|---|
Pick any two teams and play the game out thousands of times: win odds, likely scores, and a sample box score.
Power rating in points against an average FBS team on a neutral field. Gold dots are the current top 25. Tap a dot to jump to that team.
Small numbers are the national rank in each column. Tap a team for the full explanation and game log. What does each column mean?
Choose which columns to show. Rank and Team always stay. Your picks are saved on this device.
| Rk | Team | Last week | Why they're here | W–L | Offense rank | Defense rank | SOS rank | SOR rank | Last game | Power | Résumé | Efficiency | Adj. offense | Adj. defense | Run offense | Pass offense | Run defense | Pass defense | Off. success | Def. success | Adj. margin | Special teams | Deserved wins | Luck | Schedule | Plays cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MiamiACC | ▲ 2 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, and an above-average defense that's stout against the run. Won at #8 Wake Forest. Up 2 after it beat North Carolina 38-35, 11 points worse than projected; it climbed because teams around it lost more ground. | 8–0 | 1 | 62 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | IndianaBig Ten | – | A good offense built on the passing game, and an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Lost to #14 Ohio State. Held at #2: beat Minnesota 23-16, 13 points worse than projected. | 8–1 | 40 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | UtahBig 12 | ▲ 7 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, and a good defense with no clear weak spot. Beat #18 Houston. Up 7 after it beat Cincinnati 49-25, 17 points better than projected. | 8–0 | 5 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | UCLABig Ten | – | An above-average offense that leans on the run, and an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Won at #22 Oregon. Held at #4: beat Nevada 27-0, close to what was projected. | 8–0 | 50 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | GeorgiaSEC | ▲ 9 | A really good, balanced offense, and an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Won at #6 Alabama. Up 9 after it beat Florida 27-8, 11 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Alabama because it beat them head-to-head. | 7–1 | 24 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | AlabamaSEC | ▼ 1 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, and a good defense that's at its best against the run. Won at #11 Kentucky. Down 1: idle this week while teams around it played well. | 6–2 | 3 | 35 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Notre DameFBS Independents | ▲ 1 | A really good, balanced offense, and a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. #7 special teams. Up 1 after it beat Navy 35-13, close to what was projected. | 7–1 | 14 | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Wake ForestACC | ▼ 2 | A really good, balanced offense, and an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Lost to #1 Miami. Down 2 after it beat Virginia 51-7, close to what was projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 7–1 | 12 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | TexasSEC | ▲ 2 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, but an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Beat #10 Ole Miss. Up 2 after it beat Mississippi State 31-3, 24 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Ole Miss because it beat them head-to-head. | 6–2 | 93 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Ole MissSEC | ▲ 2 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, and an above-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Beat #12 LSU. Up 2 after it beat Auburn 45-15, 18 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 4 | 60 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | KentuckySEC | ▼ 2 | A good offense built on the run game, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Beat #12 LSU. Down 2: idle this week while teams around it played well. | 7–1 | 35 | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | LSUSEC | ▲ 1 | An elite, balanced offense, and an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. #15 toughest schedule. Up 1: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 6–2 | 10 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | USCBig Ten | ▲ 18 | An elite offense built on the passing game, but a below-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Up 18 after it upset Ohio State 30-18, 20 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Ohio State because it beat them head-to-head. | 7–2 | 7 | 81 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Ohio StateBig Ten | ▼ 13 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, and a really good defense that's at its best against the pass. Won at #2 Indiana. Down 13 after it lost 30-18 to USC in an upset, 20 points worse than projected. | 6–2 | 11 | 19 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | BYUBig 12 | ▼ 8 | A good, balanced offense, and a good defense that shuts down passing but can be run on. Beat #7 Notre Dame. Down 8 after it beat Arizona State 27-20, 7 points worse than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 7–1 | 26 | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Texas TechBig 12 | ▼ 1 | An above-average offense that leans on the run, and a good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Beat #18 Houston. Down 1 after it beat Arizona 34-26, 8 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 7–1 | 56 | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | MissouriSEC | ▲ 1 | A good offense built on the passing game with no real run game, and a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Beat #20 Florida. Up 1 after it beat Arkansas 34-10, 8 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 44 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | HoustonBig 12 | ▼ 2 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #3 Utah. Down 2: idle this week while teams around it played well. | 6–2 | 13 | 73 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | TennesseeSEC | ▲ 4 | A below-average offense with a dangerous run game, but an elite defense that's at its best against the pass. Beat #6 Alabama. Up 4: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 6–2 | 79 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | FloridaSEC | – | A really good offense built on the passing game, and an above-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Won at #9 Texas. Held at #20: lost 27-8 to Georgia, 11 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 19 | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | IowaBig Ten | ▲ 15 | A good, balanced offense, and a really good defense that's at its best against the run. Lost to #14 Ohio State. Up 15 after it beat Wisconsin 30-0, 28 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 45 | 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | OregonBig Ten | ▲ 16 | A below-average, balanced offense, but an elite defense that's at its best against the pass. Won at #13 USC. Up 16 after it beat Northwestern 34-26, 7 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Boise State because it beat them head-to-head. | 5–3 | 81 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Boise StatePac-12 | ▲ 4 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Record flatters it (+1.4 luck). Up 4 after it beat Texas State 46-45, close to what was projected. | 7–1 | 25 | 106 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | UTSAAmerican Athletic | ▲ 2 | An above-average offense with a dangerous run game, and a below-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Record flatters it (+1.8 luck). Up 2: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 7–1 | 49 | 78 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | LibertyConference USA | ▲ 10 | A below-average, balanced offense, but a really good defense with no clear weak spot. 7-1 vs. a soft schedule (#126). Up 10 after it beat Florida International 49-10, 14 points better than projected. | 7–1 | 71 | 23 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 26 | NorthwesternBig Ten | ▼ 9 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #2 Indiana. Down 9 after it lost 34-26 to Oregon, 7 points worse than projected. | 6–2 | 9 | 90 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 27 | Mississippi StateSEC | ▼ 2 | A really good, balanced offense, and a good defense that stuffs the run but gets beat through the air. Beat #17 Missouri. Down 2 after it lost 31-3 to Texas, 24 points worse than projected. Ranked ahead of South Carolina because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–4 | 17 | 37 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 28 | South CarolinaSEC | ▲ 12 | A really good offense built on the run game, and an above-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Beat #19 Tennessee. Up 12 after it upset Oklahoma 42-25, 25 points better than projected. | 5–3 | 21 | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 29 | ArizonaBig 12 | ▼ 10 | A good offense built on the passing game with no real run game, and a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #15 BYU. Down 10 after it lost 34-26 to Texas Tech, 8 points worse than projected. | 6–2 | 30 | 42 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 30 | LouisvilleACC | ▲ 3 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, and an above-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Better than its record (-1.1 luck). Up 3 after it beat Stanford 52-24, close to what was projected. | 5–3 | 8 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 31 | New MexicoMountain West | ▼ 1 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, but a really good defense that's at its best against the run. 7-1 vs. a soft schedule (#135). Down 1 after it beat San José State 21-16, 11 points worse than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 7–1 | 91 | 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 32 | SMUACC | ▼ 11 | A really good offense built on the passing game, and a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #30 Louisville. Down 11 after it lost 30-27 to Syracuse in an upset, close to what was projected. | 6–2 | 18 | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 33 | WisconsinBig Ten | ▼ 11 | A below-average, balanced offense, but a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Beat #13 USC. Down 11 after it lost 30-0 to Iowa, 28 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 78 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 34 | North TexasAmerican Athletic | – | An elite offense built on the passing game, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #2 Indiana. Held at #34: beat Florida Atlantic 48-41, 8 points worse than projected. | 6–2 | 2 | 107 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 35 | AuburnSEC | ▲ 2 | A good, balanced offense, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Won at #5 Georgia. Up 2 after it lost 45-15 to Ole Miss, 18 points worse than projected; it climbed because teams around it lost more ground. | 4–4 | 39 | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 36 | BaylorBig 12 | ▲ 17 | An above-average offense that can't run the ball, and a really good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #35 Auburn. Up 17 after it beat UCF 41-9, 28 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Louisiana Tech because it beat them head-to-head. | 5–3 | 63 | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 37 | Louisiana TechSun Belt | ▲ 2 | An above-average offense that can't run the ball, and a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #12 LSU. Up 2 after it beat South Alabama 35-20, close to what was projected. | 6–2 | 61 | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 38 | MichiganBig Ten | ▲ 5 | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Lost to #2 Indiana. Up 5 after it beat Rutgers 28-21, close to what was projected. Ranked ahead of Oklahoma because it beat them head-to-head. | 5–3 | 55 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 39 | OklahomaSEC | ▼ 15 | A below-average, balanced offense, but an elite defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Beat #9 Texas. Down 15 after it lost 42-25 to South Carolina in an upset, 25 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 76 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 40 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | ▼ 8 | An elite offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Beat #22 Oregon. Down 8 after it lost 51-49 to Iowa State in an upset, close to what was projected. | 5–3 | 6 | 87 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 41 | ClemsonACC | ▲ 8 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, but an elite defense that's at its best against the pass. #8 special teams. Up 8 after it upset Florida State 36-24, 15 points better than projected. | 5–3 | 127 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 42 | NebraskaBig Ten | ▼ 14 | An above-average offense that leans on the run, and a really good defense that's at its best against the pass. Lost to #2 Indiana. Down 14 after it lost 17-10 to Washington in an upset, 22 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 48 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 43 | DukeACC | ▲ 9 | A below-average offense that leans on the pass, but a good defense that's at its best against the run. Lost to #124 Georgia Tech. Up 9 after it beat Boston College 47-2, 19 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 74 | 29 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 44 | James MadisonSun Belt | ▼ 15 | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and a below-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Beat #25 Liberty. Down 15 after it lost 24-21 to Troy in an upset, 20 points worse than projected. | 7–2 | 60 | 70 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 45 | MemphisAmerican Athletic | ▲ 5 | A good, balanced offense, but a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #91 Tulane. Up 5 after it beat Army 49-22, 21 points better than projected. | 7–2 | 42 | 89 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 46 | MinnesotaBig Ten | ▼ 4 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, but a really good defense that's at its best against the pass. Beat #21 Iowa. Down 4 after it lost 23-16 to Indiana, 13 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 5–3 | 121 | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 47 | North CarolinaACC | ▲ 1 | A good, balanced offense, but a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. #12 toughest schedule. Up 1 after it lost 38-35 to Miami, 11 points better than projected; it climbed because teams around it lost more ground. Ranked ahead of Pittsburgh because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–4 | 28 | 83 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 48 | PittsburghACC | ▼ 4 | A below-average, balanced offense, but a good defense that stuffs the run but gets beat through the air. Lost to #88 Boston College. Down 4 after it beat Georgia Tech 34-11, 10 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 6–3 | 83 | 39 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 49 | Virginia TechACC | ▼ 3 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a below-average defense that's stout against the run. Lost to #104 California. Down 3: idle this week while teams around it played well. | 6–2 | 51 | 76 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 | Texas A&MSEC | ▲ 4 | An above-average offense that leans on the run, and a good defense that's at its best against the run. Lost to #6 Alabama. Up 4: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 4–4 | 65 | 31 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 51 | North Dakota StateMountain West | – | A bad offense that can't run the ball, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. #1 special teams. Held at #51: beat UTEP 31-7, close to what was projected. | 7–2 | 125 | 38 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 52 | WashingtonBig Ten | ▲ 23 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #13 USC. Up 23 after it upset Nebraska 17-10, 22 points better than projected. | 5–3 | 90 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 53 | CincinnatiBig 12 | ▼ 12 | A really good, balanced offense, but a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Beat #16 Texas Tech. Down 12 after it lost 49-25 to Utah, 17 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 23 | 119 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 54 | IllinoisBig Ten | ▲ 8 | A good, balanced offense, but a bad defense that really struggles against the pass. Beat #22 Oregon. Up 8 after it upset Maryland 20-17, close to what was projected. | 5–3 | 29 | 121 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 55 | OhioMid-American | ▲ 5 | A below-average, balanced offense, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #108 South Alabama. Up 5: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. Ranked ahead of Jacksonville State because it beat them head-to-head. | 6–2 | 72 | 97 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 56 | Jacksonville StateConference USA | ▲ 9 | A good offense built on the passing game, but a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #51 North Dakota State. Up 9 after it beat New Mexico State 24-0, 21 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 38 | 115 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 57 | ToledoMid-American | – | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and an above-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Lost to #99 Buffalo. Held at #57: idle this week. | 6–2 | 64 | 65 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 58 | Air ForceMountain West | ▲ 8 | A good offense built on the run game, but a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #95 Wyoming. Up 8 after it beat UConn 35-26, 8 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 43 | 116 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 59 | Iowa StateBig 12 | ▲ 12 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #3 Utah. Up 12 after it upset Oklahoma State 51-49, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 54 | 66 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 | Arizona StateBig 12 | ▼ 4 | A below-average offense that leans on the run, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. Down 4 after it lost 27-20 to BYU, 7 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 4–4 | 70 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 61 | Oregon StatePac-12 | ▼ 14 | A good offense built on the passing game, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #16 Texas Tech. Down 14 after it lost 38-22 to Fresno State in an upset, 20 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 32 | 92 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 62 | South FloridaAmerican Athletic | ▲ 5 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #126 Temple. Up 5 after it beat UAB 30-10, 16 points better than projected. | 6–2 | 110 | 58 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 63 | West VirginiaBig 12 | ▼ 2 | A good, balanced offense, but a bad defense that really struggles against the pass. Record flatters it (+1.5 luck). Down 2: idle this week while teams around it played well. | 5–3 | 34 | 130 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 64 | UCFBig 12 | ▼ 19 | A shaky offense, and an above-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Beat #15 BYU. Down 19 after it lost 41-9 to Baylor, 28 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 87 | 54 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 65 | Penn StateBig Ten | ▲ 9 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, but a really good defense that's at its best against the pass. Lost to #13 USC. Up 9 after it beat Purdue 31-17, 8 points better than projected. | 4–4 | 89 | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 66 | SyracuseACC | ▲ 14 | An above-average, balanced offense, and an above-average defense that's tough against the pass. Lost to #104 California. Up 14 after it upset SMU 30-27, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 52 | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 67 | Fresno StatePac-12 | ▲ 14 | A below-average offense that can't run the ball, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #103 San Diego State. Up 14 after it upset Oregon State 38-22, 20 points better than projected. | 5–3 | 77 | 74 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 68 | TCUBig 12 | ▲ 11 | A bad offense that can't run the ball, but a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Better than its record (-1.2 luck). Up 11 after it beat Kansas 22-16, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 118 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 69 | ArmyAmerican Athletic | ▼ 14 | A really good offense built on the run game, but a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Record flatters it (+1.2 luck). Down 14 after it lost 49-22 to Memphis, 21 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 16 | 136 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 70 | Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic | ▼ 6 | A good offense built on the passing game, but a bad defense that really struggles to stop the run. #4 special teams. Down 6 after it lost 48-41 to North Texas, 8 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 5–3 | 27 | 132 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 71 | Western MichiganMid-American | ▲ 2 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Record flatters it (+1.4 luck). Up 2 after it beat Bowling Green 23-10, close to what was projected. | 6–3 | 100 | 80 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 72 | Kansas StateBig 12 | ▼ 14 | A good offense built on the run game, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Down 14 after it lost 27-24 to Colorado in an upset, 8 points worse than projected. Ranked ahead of Kansas because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–4 | 33 | 61 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 73 | KansasBig 12 | ▼ 5 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a really good defense with no clear weak spot. Better than its record (-1.3 luck). Down 5 after it lost 22-16 to TCU, close to what was projected. | 3–5 | 53 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 74 | LouisianaSun Belt | ▲ 3 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #121 Southern Miss. Up 3: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 5–3 | 101 | 59 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 75 | NC StateACC | ▲ 14 | A good offense built on the passing game with no real run game, but a shaky defense. Lost to #92 Vanderbilt. Up 14 after it beat California 31-10, 13 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of App State because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–4 | 37 | 86 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 76 | App StateSun Belt | ▼ 13 | A below-average offense that can't run the ball, and a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Lost to #129 Old Dominion. Down 13 after it lost 19-3 to Georgia Southern, 14 points worse than projected. | 5–3 | 84 | 75 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 77 | Florida StateACC | ▼ 18 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #1 Miami. Down 18 after it lost 36-24 to Clemson in an upset, 15 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 22 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 78 | PurdueBig Ten | ▼ 9 | A good offense built on the passing game, but a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. #10 toughest schedule. Down 9 after it lost 31-17 to Penn State, 8 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 36 | 122 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 79 | UNLVMountain West | ▼ 3 | A shaky offense, and a below-average defense that gets run over. Record flatters it (+1.3 luck). Down 3 after it beat Northern Illinois 31-24, 10 points worse than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 5–3 | 104 | 82 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 80 | Texas StatePac-12 | ▼ 10 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #103 San Diego State. Down 10 after it lost 46-45 to Boise State, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 20 | 113 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 81 | Miami (OH)Mid-American | ▲ 1 | A below-average, balanced offense, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #135 Bowling Green. Up 1: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 5–3 | 68 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 82 | TulsaAmerican Athletic | ▲ 5 | A below-average offense with a dangerous run game, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #109 Navy. Up 5: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 4–4 | 73 | 36 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 83 | ColoradoBig 12 | ▲ 13 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, but a good defense that's at its best against the run. Lost to #3 Utah. Up 13 after it upset Kansas State 27-24, 8 points better than projected. | 3–5 | 99 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 84 | StanfordACC | – | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Record flatters it (+1.2 luck). Held at #84: lost 52-24 to Louisville, close to what was projected. Ranked ahead of NC State because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–5 | 86 | 125 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 85 | Georgia SouthernSun Belt | ▲ 10 | A below-average offense that can't run the ball, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #18 Houston. Up 10 after it beat App State 19-3, 14 points better than projected. | 4–4 | 69 | 69 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 86 | VirginiaACC | ▲ 2 | A shaky offense, and an above-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Up 2 after it lost 51-7 to Wake Forest, close to what was projected; it climbed because teams around it lost more ground. | 4–5 | 92 | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 87 | East CarolinaAmerican Athletic | ▲ 3 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #94 UAB. Up 3 after it beat Temple 17-9, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 107 | 30 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 88 | Boston CollegeACC | ▼ 16 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #32 SMU. Down 16 after it lost 47-2 to Duke, 19 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 119 | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 89 | ArkansasSEC | ▼ 3 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. #9 toughest schedule. Down 3 after it lost 34-10 to Missouri, 8 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 98 | 91 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 | UConnFBS Independents | ▼ 7 | A good offense built on the run game, but a below-average defense that's better against the run than the pass. Lost to #105 Maryland. Down 7 after it lost 35-26 to Air Force, 8 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 41 | 84 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 91 | TulaneAmerican Athletic | ▲ 10 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Record flatters it (+1.1 luck). Up 10 after it beat Charlotte 38-31, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 116 | 68 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 92 | VanderbiltSEC | ▲ 8 | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #89 Arkansas. Up 8: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 3–5 | 57 | 96 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 93 | MarshallSun Belt | ▲ 6 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a bad defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #112 Coastal Carolina. Up 6 after it beat Old Dominion 36-23, 13 points better than projected. | 5–3 | 105 | 120 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 94 | UABAmerican Athletic | ▼ 9 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and an above-average defense that's tough against the pass. Lost to #45 Memphis. Down 9 after it lost 30-10 to South Florida, 16 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 114 | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 95 | WyomingMountain West | ▲ 3 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #115 Colorado State. Up 3: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 5–3 | 112 | 104 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 96 | Michigan StateBig Ten | ▲ 1 | A shaky offense that can't move the ball running or passing, but a good defense that's at its best against the run. Better than its record (-1.5 luck). Up 1: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 2–6 | 108 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 97 | Arkansas StateSun Belt | ▲ 7 | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #108 South Alabama. Up 7: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. Ranked ahead of Georgia State because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–4 | 58 | 123 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 98 | Georgia StateSun Belt | ▼ 20 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Down 20 after it lost 31-20 to Coastal Carolina in an upset, 24 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 46 | 112 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 99 | BuffaloMid-American | ▲ 4 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #116 Florida International. Up 4: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 5–3 | 132 | 109 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 100 | DelawareConference USA | ▲ 12 | An above-average offense that leans on the pass, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #106 Middle Tennessee. Up 12 after it upset Western Kentucky 35-21, 18 points better than projected. | 4–4 | 62 | 114 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 101 | Utah StatePac-12 | ▲ 13 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, but a really good defense that shuts down the run and the pass. Lost to an FCS team. Up 13 after it beat Colorado State 31-14, 14 points better than projected. Ranked ahead of Troy because it beat them head-to-head. | 3–5 | 129 | 21 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 102 | TroySun Belt | ▲ 13 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a below-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #134 UL Monroe. Up 13 after it upset James Madison 24-21, 20 points better than projected. | 4–4 | 120 | 79 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 103 | San Diego StatePac-12 | ▲ 5 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #115 Colorado State. Up 5 after it beat Washington State 26-20, close to what was projected. | 4–5 | 111 | 99 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 104 | CaliforniaACC | ▼ 10 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a below-average defense that gets run over. Lost to #4 UCLA. Down 10 after it lost 31-10 to NC State, 13 points worse than projected. | 3–6 | 94 | 85 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 105 | MarylandBig Ten | ▼ 14 | A shaky offense, and a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Lost to #113 Rutgers. Down 14 after it lost 20-17 to Illinois in an upset, close to what was projected. | 2–6 | 88 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 106 | Middle TennesseeConference USA | ▼ 13 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a bad defense that really struggles to stop the run. Down 13 after it lost 44-28 to Kennesaw State, 17 points worse than projected. | 4–4 | 97 | 126 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 107 | Ball StateMid-American | ▲ 4 | A below-average offense that leans on the pass, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #125 Kent State. Up 4: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 3–5 | 67 | 110 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 108 | South AlabamaSun Belt | ▼ 6 | A below-average offense that leans on the pass, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #93 Marshall. Down 6 after it lost 35-20 to Louisiana Tech, close to what was projected. | 4–4 | 75 | 137 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 109 | NavyAmerican Athletic | ▼ 2 | A good offense built on the run game, but a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #94 UAB. Down 2 after it lost 35-13 to Notre Dame, close to what was projected. | 2–6 | 31 | 102 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 110 | MassachusettsMid-American | ▲ 3 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and an above-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Lost to #120 Eastern Michigan. Up 3: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 4–4 | 122 | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 111 | Western KentuckyConference USA | ▼ 19 | A shaky offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Lost to #122 New Mexico State. Down 19 after it lost 35-21 to Delaware in an upset, 18 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 115 | 77 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 112 | Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | ▲ 13 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #100 Delaware. Up 13 after it upset Georgia State 31-20, 24 points better than projected. | 3–5 | 102 | 108 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 113 | RutgersBig Ten | ▼ 7 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #110 Massachusetts. Down 7 after it lost 28-21 to Michigan, close to what was projected. | 2–6 | 47 | 129 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 114 | Central MichiganMid-American | ▲ 4 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #81 Miami (OH). Up 4: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 3–5 | 124 | 94 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 115 | Colorado StatePac-12 | ▼ 10 | A really good offense that can beat you running or throwing, but a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Down 10 after it lost 31-14 to Utah State, 14 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 15 | 138 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 116 | Florida InternationalConference USA | ▼ 7 | A bad offense that can't run the ball, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #106 Middle Tennessee. Down 7 after it lost 49-10 to Liberty, 14 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 131 | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 117 | NevadaMountain West | ▼ 1 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Lost to an FCS team. Down 1 after it lost 27-0 to UCLA, close to what was projected. | 3–5 | 128 | 71 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 118 | Missouri StateConference USA | ▲ 6 | A below-average, balanced offense, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #111 Western Kentucky. Up 6 after it beat Sam Houston 24-3, 22 points better than projected. | 3–5 | 82 | 124 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 119 | San José StateMountain West | ▼ 2 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #117 Nevada. Down 2 after it lost 21-16 to New Mexico, 11 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. Ranked ahead of Eastern Michigan because it beat them head-to-head. | 4–5 | 130 | 93 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 120 | Eastern MichiganMid-American | ▲ 1 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #119 San José State. Up 1: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 4–5 | 126 | 95 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 121 | Southern MissSun Belt | ▲ 2 | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #102 Troy. Up 2 after it beat UL Monroe 35-21, 12 points better than projected. | 3–5 | 95 | 101 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 122 | New Mexico StateConference USA | ▼ 12 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense. Lost to #128 Hawai'i. Down 12 after it lost 24-0 to Jacksonville State, 21 points worse than projected. | 3–5 | 117 | 88 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 123 | Kennesaw StateConference USA | ▲ 4 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #118 Missouri State. Up 4 after it beat Middle Tennessee 44-28, 17 points better than projected. | 2–6 | 109 | 63 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 124 | Georgia TechACC | ▼ 4 | A below-average, balanced offense, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #88 Boston College. Down 4 after it lost 34-11 to Pittsburgh, 10 points worse than projected. | 2–6 | 66 | 128 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 125 | Kent StateMid-American | ▼ 6 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and an above-average defense with no clear weak spot. Down 6 after it lost 31-10 to Sacramento State in an upset, 27 points worse than projected. | 3–6 | 135 | 64 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 126 | TempleAmerican Athletic | ▼ 4 | An above-average, balanced offense, and a bad defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #132 Charlotte. Down 4 after it lost 17-9 to East Carolina, close to what was projected. | 2–6 | 59 | 127 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 127 | RiceAmerican Athletic | ▲ 2 | A below-average offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense. Lost to #87 East Carolina. Up 2: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 1–7 | 80 | 98 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 128 | Hawai'iMountain West | ▲ 3 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a bad defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to #119 San José State. Up 3: idle this week, and passed teams that lost ground. | 2–6 | 96 | 118 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 129 | Old DominionSun Belt | ▼ 3 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, but a good defense with no clear weak spot. Lost to #98 Georgia State. Down 3 after it lost 36-23 to Marshall, 13 points worse than projected. | 2–7 | 138 | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 130 | Washington StatePac-12 | ▲ 3 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a below-average defense that's better against the pass than the run. Up 3 after it lost 26-20 to San Diego State, close to what was projected; it climbed because teams around it lost more ground. | 1–8 | 123 | 72 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 131 | Sam HoustonConference USA | ▼ 3 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, but a good defense that shuts down passing but can be run on. Lost to #122 New Mexico State. Down 3 after it lost 24-3 to Missouri State, 22 points worse than projected. | 1–7 | 133 | 41 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 132 | CharlotteAmerican Athletic | ▼ 2 | A shaky offense that can't run the ball, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to an FCS team. Down 2 after it lost 38-31 to Tulane, close to what was projected. | 1–7 | 106 | 134 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 133 | UTEPMountain West | ▼ 1 | A bad offense that can't throw the ball, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #119 San José State. Down 1 after it lost 31-7 to North Dakota State, close to what was projected. | 1–7 | 134 | 133 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 134 | UL MonroeSun Belt | – | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a shaky defense that really struggles against the pass. Lost to an FCS team. Held at #134: lost 35-21 to Southern Miss, 12 points worse than projected. | 1–7 | 103 | 105 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 135 | Bowling GreenMid-American | – | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and a bad defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to an FCS team. Held at #135: lost 23-10 to Western Michigan, close to what was projected. | 2–7 | 136 | 117 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 136 | AkronMid-American | – | A shaky offense that can't throw the ball, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to #125 Kent State. Held at #136: idle this week. | 1–7 | 113 | 131 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 137 | Sacramento StateMid-American | ▲ 1 | A bad offense that can't move the ball running or passing, and a shaky defense that really struggles to stop the run. Lost to #135 Bowling Green. Up 1 after it upset Kent State 31-10, 27 points better than projected. | 2–7 | 137 | 103 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 138 | Northern IllinoisMountain West | ▼ 1 | A below-average offense that leans on the run, and a bad defense that can't stop the run or the pass. Lost to an FCS team. Down 1 after it lost 31-24 to UNLV, 10 points better than projected; it slipped because teams around it did more. | 0–8 | 85 | 135 |
Pick two teams and play the game out as many times as you like. Every simulation is built from CFB Truth ratings: each offense and defense, their run and pass grades, special teams, and Power.
Simulated at the team level from CFB Truth ratings, so there are no individual player stats. Results change a little every run, the way real games would. Injuries: a starting quarterback sitting out costs his team about 4.4 points. That is the average drop in FBS games from 2024 to 2026 where the starter missed a game and later came back. If he has already missed games this season, the ratings partly reflect that, so the simulator scales the adjustment to the games he actually played. When a team changes quarterbacks for good (a season-ending injury or a benching), the new starter is listed instead; after a season-ending injury, the simulator also takes off the old starter’s share of that 4.4 points, since the ratings still include his games. A benching gets no adjustment: in the same data, teams that switched quarterbacks by choice played about as well as before. Only the quarterback is adjusted: the same test found no measurable drop when a team’s top running back or top receiver sat out, because backups at those spots tend to fill in.
Everything behind the rankings: how the numbers are built, what each column measures, and how to read them. Back to the rankings
Every number on this page, what it measures, and how to read it. All stats leave out garbage time.
Spot something off, have a question about a ranking, or an idea for the site? Send it here. Every message goes straight to the person who runs CFB Truth.